【 The Digital Star Seminar Series No.24 】Robust Data-Driven Decisions Under Model Uncertainty

Date: 23 Sep 2022 (Fri) 
Time: 9:00am - 10:30am (Hong Kong Time, UTC+8)
Platform: Tencent Meeting (ID 660-107-073)

Host: Prof. Miaojun Wang (School of Economics, Zhejiang University)

Presenter: Prof. Xiaoyu Cheng (The Florida State University)

Abstract：

When sample data are governed by an unknown sequence of independent but possibly non-identical distributions, the data-generating process (DGP) in general cannot be perfectly identified from the data. For making decisions facing such uncertainty, this paper presents a novel approach by studying how the data can best be used to robustly improve decisions. That is, no matter which DGP governs the uncertainty, one can make a better decision than without using the data. I show that common inference methods, e.g., maximum likelihood and Bayesian updating cannot achieve this goal. To address, I develop new updating rules that lead to robustly better decisions either asymptotically almost surely or in finite sample with a prespecified probability. Especially, they are easy to implement as are given by simple extensions of the standard statistical procedures in the case where the possible DGPs are all independent and identically distributed. Finally, I show that the new updating rules also lead to more intuitive conclusions in existing economic models such as asset pricing under ambiguity.

Intro to the Presenter:

Xiaoyu Cheng, an assistant professor of Florida State University, is mainly engaged in research on microeconomic theory, decision theory and information economics. His research results have been published in the Journal of Mathematical Economics.

Organization：

- The Chinese University of Hong Kong-Zhejiang University Joint Research Center for Digital Economy

- China Digital Economy Research Center of School of Economics, Zhejiang University

- Zhejiang University Digital Economy Innovation Research Team

Intro to The Digital Star Seminar Series：

The Digital Star Seminar Series is co-hosted by the China Digital Economy Research Center of School of Economics, Zhejiang University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong-Zhejiang University Joint Research Center for Digital Economy. This series of seminars will study the development of the digital economy and China's economic transformation based on the practice of China's digital transformation. We will invite domestic and overseas scholars to share and discuss the latest research on the digital economy and the Chinese economy. We hope that this academic platform can become a paradise for the study of the digital economy. More importantly, it can generate insights that significantly impact the digital economy and Chinese economy, which will help promote digital transformation and high-quality economic development in Chinese society.